A third of the way in: every team graded against expectations

Six weeks is a third of the season. That's enough football to stop saying "it's early" and start asking the real question: is your team better or worse than we all thought in August?

This isn't a power ranking. A 4-2 team that was supposed to win six can grade out higher than a 5-1 team that was supposed to win 11. The preseason number is the Vegas win total (books didn't all agree, so we used the middle). The grade is how they're doing against that number, with an eye on how they're getting it done.

Nobody Saw This Coming

A+ Vikings

Preseason win total: 8.5. Now: 5-0.

They signed Kyler Murray for the minimum and are undefeated. The offense is honestly not good, but Brian Flores' defense allows 12.8 a game, best in the league. The next month (DET, GB, BUF) tells us if it's real.

A Browns

Preseason win total: 6. Now: 4-2.

Traded Myles Garrett, started Deshaun Watson, and they're 4-2 and 2-0 in the division. Fair warning: they've been outscored on the year and all four wins came by four points or less. Enjoy it anyway.

A- Panthers

Preseason win total: 7. Now: 3-2.

Gave up 59 to the Bears in the opener, then beat Detroit and won in Philly. Ejiro Evero's defense has grown up fast.

B+ Raiders

Preseason win total: 5.5. Now: 3-3.

Klint Kubiak has a rebuilding team at .500. The three losses are to KC, NE and Buffalo, and they covered against Buffalo. Already halfway to the over.

Good Teams, Even Better

A Chiefs

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 5-0.

Mahomes came back from the ACL like nothing happened and the defense has allowed the fewest points in the AFC. The schedule has had some cupcakes (MIA, LAC), but this is still the S(atan) tier.

A 49ers

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 6-0.

Best point differential in the NFC, and they've already beaten Denver, Seattle and the Rams. Purdy's playing at an MVP level. Monday was closer than it should've been, but a win's a win.

A- Bills

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 5-1.

Joe Brady's first year is going about as well as possible on offense. The defense is giving up 28.5 a game, which won't fly in January.

B+ Jaguars

Preseason win total: 9.5. Now: 4-2.

+50 point differential, second best in the AFC. Their only real dud was the London shootout loss.

B+ Patriots

Preseason win total: 9.5. Now: 4-2.

The Super Bowl hangover lasted about one week. Three straight wins, but they're near the top of the league in giveaways, and that bites eventually.

B+ Steelers

Preseason win total: 8.5. Now: 4-2.

Rodgers and Mike McCarthy, back together and somehow working. The point differential (+9) and a soft schedule say don't get too excited.

B+ Bears

Preseason win total: 10. Now: 4-2.

4-2 with Caleb missing three games. With him back and dealing, this is a scary team.

About What We Ordered

B Broncos

Preseason win total: 9.5. Now: 4-2.

Everyone said they'd regress after 14 wins. The defense said no. The offense has been shaky and they're actually -11 on the year, but they've played a tough schedule.

B Packers

Preseason win total: 10. Now: 4-2.

Three straight wins and Micah Parsons hasn't played a snap yet. That's the scary part.

B Giants

Preseason win total: 8. Now: 3-2-1.

They lost Jaxson Dart for the year and still lead the NFC East. That's a credit to Harbaugh. It's also a statement about the NFC East.

B- Ravens

Preseason win total: 11.5. Now: 4-2.

On pace for their number while Lamar sits with the ankle. The loss to the Saints is the one that sticks out.

B- Bengals

Preseason win total: 10. Now: 3-2.

The weirdest 3-2 in football. The defense is good now and the offense isn't explosive anymore. Chase and Higgins have both missed time.

B- Cardinals

Preseason win total: 5. Now: 2-4.

Just beat the Rams on the road and they're on track for the over. The point differential (-52) says they've been worse than 2-4 most weeks.

C+ Lions

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 3-2.

Goff has MVP buzz, but losing at Carolina and a bad pass defense have them just under their pace.

C Jets

Preseason win total: 5.5. Now: 2-4.

Exactly who we thought. Both wins came against Tennessee and Cleveland, and a Bears backup QB outgained them 492-157.

Behind Schedule

C Saints

Preseason win total: 7.5. Now: 2-4.

Second hardest schedule in the league and a tough-as-nails QB. Still outscored by 26 and getting smoked in first quarters.

C- Seahawks

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 3-3.

The defending champs have the league's best defense by yards and have lost three of four. Darnold is tied for the league lead in picks and the run game is gone.

C- Texans

Preseason win total: 9.5. Now: 2-4.

0-4 against a tough slate, now two straight wins and a +1 point differential. Better than the record, but the hole is real.

C- Falcons

Preseason win total: 7. Now: 2-4.

Penix is playing through it. Bijan getting nine carries is the bigger problem, and that one's on the coach.

D+ Dolphins

Preseason win total: 4.5. Now: 0-5.

Expected to be bad and somehow worse, with the fewest points in the league. To be fair, they've been within a score late in three straight, and rookie LB Jacob Rodriguez leads the NFL in tackles.

D Colts

Preseason win total: 7.5. Now: 2-4.

Daniel Jones has been a turnover machine and they just blew a 13-0 halftime lead at home to Tennessee.

D Commanders

Preseason win total: 7.5. Now: 1-4-1.

Jayden Daniels is back from the elbow and threw for 300 in San Francisco Monday, so the offense isn't the problem. The defense is bottom of the league in points allowed, and Dan Quinn's job is a real conversation.

D Titans

Preseason win total: 6.5. Now: 1-5.

Nobody expected much and they're still under it. Cam Ward is struggling. Rookie WR Carnell Tate is the reason to watch.

D Cowboys

Preseason win total: 8.5. Now: 2-4.

The new defense gives up more yards per play than anybody, they pulled Mike Pettine out of retirement to help, and they lost at home to a Bucs team without Baker. Vinny is not okay.

Full Blown Disaster

F Eagles

Preseason win total: 10.5. Now: 2-4.

Four straight losses for the first time under Sirianni. Hurts is on IR with a blood clot in his calf, Saquon's hamstring is acting up, Lane Johnson retired, and Sirianni says "everything's on the table."

F Rams

Preseason win total: 11.5. Now: 2-4.

Tied for the highest win total in the league in August. Last place in the NFC West in October. Blew a 16-0 lead to Denver and lost at home to Arizona.

F Chargers

Preseason win total: 9. Now: 0-6.

Ten straight losses dating back to last season. Herbert hasn't clicked with Mike McDaniel and the offensive line is held together with tape. Harbaugh says he and ownership are "in this fight together."

F Buccaneers

Preseason win total: 8.5. Now: 1-5.

Lost Baker to the thumb and the season went with him. Blowing a 16-3 fourth quarter lead Sunday was the cherry on top. If Mayfield's back for Week 7, there's time, barely.

Next check-in: after Week 12, two thirds of the way.