Oct. 2, 2026

Hurry Up Hustlers: three Week 4 picks

Marv

Record carries over from Week 2 at 2-1. I sat out Week 3 and I'm not going to pretend otherwise, so the honest line is three picks graded, two right.

Also, Pittsburgh at Cleveland on Thursday is a game I won't touch. I've told you why. Discipline is the word I use publicly.

1. Giants pick'em at home vs Cardinals

Cardinals -1 to Giants -1.5 depending on your book. Confidence: solid.

New York leads the league in time of possession and in average starting field position on defense. Those two things together are how a team with no passing game stays in every game.
Arizona scored 30 in San Francisco and lost, then 26 against the Chargers and won. The offense is fine. The defense gives it all back, and that's a bad profile against a team that wants 13-play drives.
The caveat, and it's a real one: the Giants scored 12 and 6 in their last two games. If you need points, don't come here.

Total 38.5. Confidence: hammer, and I don't use that word.

Miami's scoring, three games: Week 1 10 pts, Week 2 13 pts, Week 3 13 pts

Miami has scored 10, 13 and 13. Three games, 36 points, no outlier in either direction.
Minnesota won 23-16 last week while gaining 230 yards, and won 9-3 the week before. Their last two games produced 51 points combined between both teams.
Minnesota is a 10-point favorite, which usually drags a total up. This one is still 38.5, and I think it's low for a reason rather than low by mistake.

49ers -2.5. Confidence: lean.

Denver has won two straight on fourth-quarter comebacks, including spotting the Rams 16 points and winning anyway.
San Francisco needed 36 to beat Arizona and gave up 30 to a team that scored 7 the week before. The defense that held the Rams to 7 in Week 1 has leaked since.
Getting under a field goal with a team that has already shown it can play from behind is the right side of a coin flip.

Every pick graded in public, win or lose, and the weeks I skip get said out loud.

21+. This is entertainment, not advice, and no system beats the closing line over time. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.