Week 2 preview: all 15 games, three bullets each
Every game this weekend, three things that matter and one number to hang onto. Lines and totals are from the Friday board and will move before kickoff.
Biggest Week 1 wins (margin): Jaguars over Browns 24 pts, Bears over Panthers 22 pts, Chiefs over Broncos 21 pts, 49ers over Rams 20 pts, Ravens over Colts 18 pts, Vikings over Packers 17 pts, Raiders over Dolphins 14 pts
1:00 ET
Eagles at Titans
Philadelphia -7, total 39.5
- Philly survived Washington 24-22 with an offense that still looks like it's learning itself
- Tennessee scored 10 at home against the Jets and Cam Ward is still searching
- Eagles are 75% to win this by the models, which is about where a 7-point road favorite should sit
Key number: 10 - points the Titans managed at home in Week 1
Steelers at Patriots
New England -5.5, total 41.5
- New England lost 13-10 to a Seattle team playing a backup, and Drake Maye took a clear step back
- Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13 on the strength of T.J. Watt, not offense
- Both teams won or lost ugly, which is usually a sign the total stays low
Key number: 23 - combined points in New England's opener
Vikings at Bears
Chicago -5.5, total 48.5
- Chicago put 59 on Carolina, the most points in a Week 1 game ever
- That same Bears defense gave up 37, so this is not a finished team
- Minnesota won 39-22 behind Carson Wentz after an early injury forced him in
Key number: 59 - what Chicago scored in the opener
Panthers at Falcons
Carolina -2.5, total 44
- Carolina gave up 59 points and is somehow the model's slight favorite here on the road
- Atlanta's quarterback situation is unsettled and it showed in a 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh
- Carolina is a 2.5-point road favorite, which tells you what the market thinks of Atlanta right now
Key number: 37 - points Carolina scored while losing by 22
Packers at Jets
Green Bay -3.5, total 44.5
- Green Bay beat itself against Minnesota with penalties and late turnovers in a 39-22 loss
- The Jets have an identity now, physical and mistake-free, and they showed it 23-10 at Tennessee
- Green Bay is favored, but this is the kind of spot where the Jets keep it ugly and close
Key number: 0 - Jets turnovers in their Week 1 win
Saints at Ravens
Baltimore -8.5, total 47.5
- Baltimore didn't miss a step with a new coach, hanging 41 on Indianapolis
- Derrick Henry is still rolling at 32, which is the whole offense's floor
- New Orleans lost 31-30 in overtime and Tyler Shough looked like someone they can build on
Key number: 41 - what Baltimore scored in Week 1
Bengals at Texans
Houston -2.5, total 46.5
- Cincinnati's defense actually made plays in a 33-27 win, which is new
- Houston lost 36-31 to Buffalo and gets no break here
- Tampa handed the Bengals four fumbles, so don't overreact to that defensive showing
Key number: 4 - fumbles Cincinnati was gifted last week
Browns at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay -8.5, total 41.5
- Cleveland lost 34-10 and still has no answer at quarterback
- Tampa lost despite outplaying Cincinnati, mostly by putting the ball on the ground four times
- Tampa's 78% win probability is the second-highest on the board
Key number: 10 - points Cleveland scored in the opener
4:00 and 4:25 ET
Points scored in Week 1: Bears 59 pts, Bills 36 pts, Jaguars 34 pts, Bengals 33 pts, Chiefs 31 pts, Chargers 14 pts, Browns 10 pts, Rams 7 pts
Jaguars at Broncos
Denver -2.5, total 45.5
- Jacksonville looks real, and Trevor Lawrence is locked in after a 34-10 beatdown of Cleveland
- Denver got run off the field 31-10 by Kansas City on Monday night
- Denver is only a 2.5-point home favorite, and the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings
Key number: 24 - Jacksonville's margin of victory in Week 1
Raiders at Chargers
Los Angeles -6.5, total 43.5
- Ashton Jeanty is about to be a star and Las Vegas rode him past Miami 27-13
- The Chargers need much more from Justin Herbert after a 26-14 home loss to Arizona
- The Chargers are 6.5-point home favorites off that loss, and they've won four straight in this series
Key number: 14 - points the Chargers scored at home
Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle -4, total 41
- Seattle's defense won a game by itself, 13-10, with a backup quarterback after Sam Darnold got hurt
- Arizona's offense is genuinely fun and put 26 on the Chargers
- Seattle is a 4-point road favorite with a total of just 41, the lowest on the Sunday slate
Key number: 10 - points Seattle's defense allowed in Week 1
Dolphins at 49ers
San Francisco -13.5, total 45.5
- Thirteen and a half is the biggest number on the board, in Week 2
- San Francisco looked healthy and scary in a 27-7 win over the Rams
- Miami's passing game has a long way to go after a 27-13 loss to the Raiders
Key number: 13.5 - the largest spread of the week
Commanders at Cowboys
Dallas -4, total 50.5
- Dallas spent big on defense and still got pushed around by the Giants' run game in a 28-20 loss
- Washington started too slow against Philadelphia and ran out of time, 24-22
- Two 0-1 division teams, and the loser is in a hole by September
Key number: 4 - the tightest spread on the Sunday slate
Prime time
Every spread on the board: 49ers 13.5 pts, Ravens 8.5 pts, Buccaneers 8.5 pts, Rams 7.5 pts, Eagles 7 pts, Chiefs 6.5 pts, Chargers 6.5 pts, Bears 5.5 pts, Patriots 5.5 pts, Cowboys 4 pts, Seahawks 4 pts, Packers 3.5 pts, Texans 2.5 pts, Broncos 2.5 pts, Panthers 2.5 pts
Colts at Chiefs, Sunday night
Kansas City -6.5, total 46
- Kansas City is back and it's built on the run now, with Kenneth Walker III going for 173 in the opener
- Indianapolis gave up 41 to Baltimore and the defense is in real trouble
- The Colts have won six of the last ten in this series and are 4-0 ATS as a road dog lately
Key number: 6.5 - and Indy keeps covering numbers like it
Giants at Rams, Monday night
Los Angeles -7.5, total 47.5
- The Rams scored 7 points in their opener in Australia and now come home on extended rest
- The Giants are a run-first team under John Harbaugh and just won 28-20 as a home underdog
- A 47.5 total needs both offenses working, and only one of these has shown that
Key number: 7 - points the Rams scored in Week 1